{"id":2846,"date":"2024-12-09T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-09T12:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/?p=2846"},"modified":"2025-08-28T02:27:11","modified_gmt":"2025-08-28T06:27:11","slug":"oss-will-blow-away-gains-of-bbai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/articles\/oss-will-blow-away-gains-of-bbai\/","title":{"rendered":"OSS Will Blow Away Gains of BBAI"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

BigBear.ai (BBAI)<\/strong> is up another 14.79%<\/strong><\/span> in pre-market trading<\/strong><\/span> to $3.88 per share<\/strong> despite<\/strong><\/span> the fact<\/strong><\/span> that BBAI insiders sold<\/span> <\/strong>another $21,452,727<\/span> <\/strong>worth of shares<\/strong> on Friday. All together last week, BBAI insiders sold $61,042,637<\/span><\/strong> worth of shares<\/strong>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

When BBAI<\/strong> first<\/span> went public<\/span><\/strong> by merging<\/strong><\/span> into a SPAC<\/strong> in 2021, the company said, “Revenue is projected<\/span> to grow<\/span> from $182 million in 2021 to $764 million in 2025, a 43% compound annual growth rate<\/span> (“CAGR”).”<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

On November 4th, BBAI issued<\/span><\/strong> its up-to-date projections<\/strong><\/span> for this calendar year, “For the year-ended December 31, 2024, the Company projects<\/span>: Revenue between $165 million and $180 million.”<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

Not only has BBAI failed<\/span><\/strong> to grow<\/span> revenue<\/strong> at a compound annual growth rate<\/strong><\/span> of 43%<\/strong><\/span>, but its revenue<\/strong> has declined<\/strong><\/span>! To make matters worse<\/strong><\/span>, if not for BBAI<\/strong> making another acquisition<\/strong><\/span> this year (most likely to give their friends more<\/span> shares<\/strong> to dump<\/strong><\/span> into the market<\/strong>), contributing towards severe dilution of 59.32%<\/strong><\/span> in 2024 alone… their revenue<\/strong> would have declined significantly more<\/strong><\/span>! Although BBAI<\/strong> brags of 3Q 2023 revenue growth of 22.12%<\/span> <\/strong>year-over-year, its 3Q 2023 revenue per share declined by 22.79%<\/span> <\/strong>year-over-year. At a compound annual growth rate<\/strong><\/span> of 43%<\/strong><\/span> their revenue<\/strong> for 2024 should have been $532.20 million<\/strong> but based on the mid-range<\/strong> of their latest estimate it will only be $172.5 million<\/strong> or 67.59% less<\/strong><\/span> than expected and that’s after three-year dilution of 84.84%<\/span><\/strong>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

BBAI shouldn’t<\/span><\/strong> have had any dilution<\/strong><\/span> at all in recent years after they said in 2021, “Free cash flow<\/span> is projected<\/span> to grow<\/span> from $18 million<\/span> in 2021 to $120 million<\/span> in 2025, a 60% CAGR<\/span>.”<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

Instead, BBAI<\/strong> since going public<\/strong><\/span> in 4Q 2021<\/strong> has had negative<\/strong><\/span> free cash flow<\/strong><\/span> for 11 out of the last 12 quarters<\/strong>! BBAI’s only quarter<\/strong> of positive free cash flow<\/strong><\/span> was 3Q 2023<\/strong> when they generated $3.836 million<\/strong><\/span>, but this deteriorated<\/strong><\/span> to -$6.204 million<\/strong><\/span> in 3Q 2024<\/strong>! BBAI’s total free cash flow<\/span><\/strong> since going public<\/span> three years ago<\/strong> has been -$123.885 million<\/strong><\/span>!<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

BBAI<\/strong> has 250.59 million shares outstanding for a market cap<\/strong> at $3.88 per share<\/strong> of $972.29 million<\/strong> and has net debt<\/strong><\/span> of $130.16 million<\/strong><\/span> for an enterprise value<\/strong> of $1.103 billion<\/strong> or 7.12X<\/span> revenue<\/strong> of $154.97 million<\/strong>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

One Stop Systems (OSS)<\/strong> has an enterprise value<\/strong> at $2.68 per share<\/strong> of only $45.12 million<\/strong> or 0.856X<\/span> revenue<\/strong> and generated positive free cash flow<\/strong><\/span> both in its most recent quarter<\/strong> of 3Q 2024<\/strong> and on a trailing twelve-month basis<\/strong>! OSS revenue<\/strong> has increased<\/strong><\/span> from $12.65 million<\/strong> in 1Q 2024, to $13.20 million<\/strong> in 2Q 2024, to $13.70 million<\/strong> in 3Q 2024, and the company one month ago projected<\/span> 4Q 2024 revenue<\/strong> of $15 million<\/strong>!<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

Click here<\/strong><\/a> to read their December 3rd press release<\/strong> about a brand new $200,000<\/span> purchase order<\/strong> shipping<\/span> this month<\/strong> for two rugged AI Short Depth Servers supporting<\/span><\/strong> an Asian defense contractor’s all-in-one modular system<\/strong> designed <\/span><\/strong>to convert<\/span> manned vessels<\/strong> into unmanned surface vessels (USV)<\/strong> for autonomous<\/span> missions<\/strong>. The application integrates<\/span> various mission controls<\/strong> and payloads<\/strong> for a wide range<\/strong><\/span> of applications<\/strong> to support<\/span> defense<\/strong>, public safety<\/strong>, and security operations<\/strong>, allowing<\/span> vessels<\/strong> to maneuver autonomously<\/strong><\/span>, intelligently<\/strong><\/span> and safely<\/strong><\/span> at sea<\/strong><\/span>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

Including this new<\/span> order<\/strong>, it is likely that OSS<\/strong> will exceed<\/strong><\/span> its projection <\/span><\/strong>and report<\/span> 4Q 2024 revenue<\/strong> of $15.2 million<\/strong> for positive<\/span> year-over-year revenue growth<\/span><\/strong> of 15.50%<\/strong><\/span>!<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

OSS<\/strong> will likely see its revenue<\/strong> growth rapidly ramp up<\/strong><\/span> beginning in 1Q 2025<\/strong>!<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

We don’t<\/strong><\/span> yet have photos<\/strong> of their newly developed<\/span> OSS Ponto Reef PCIe 5.0 expansion system<\/strong>, but this is an industry-first<\/span> product<\/strong> supporting<\/span> up to<\/span> 32 PCIe Accelerator Devices<\/strong> in a single chassis<\/strong>, enabling<\/strong><\/span> a best-in-class<\/strong><\/span>, high-density solution<\/strong><\/span> to serve<\/span> GenAI\/ML<\/strong>, HPC<\/strong>, visualization<\/strong> and data science applications<\/strong>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

Click here<\/strong><\/a> to read their November 13th press release<\/strong> about this new <\/strong><\/span>one-of-a-kind<\/strong><\/span> product<\/strong> and a $2 million<\/span> purchase order<\/strong> from an AI data center infrastructure company<\/strong> with shipments<\/strong><\/span> to begin<\/strong><\/span> in 1Q 2025<\/strong>!<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. NIA is not an investment advisor and does not provide investment advice. Always do your own research and make your own investment decisions. This message is meant for informational and educational purposes only and does not provide investment advice.<\/em><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

BigBear.ai (BBAI) is up another 14.79% in pre-market trading to $3.88 per share despite the fact that BBAI insiders sold another $21,452,727 worth of shares on Friday. All together last week, BBAI insiders sold $61,042,637 worth of shares. When BBAI first went public by merging into a SPAC in 2021, the company said, “Revenue is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2847,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[111,7,8],"class_list":["post-2846","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-bbai","tag-oss","tag-technology"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2846","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2846"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2846\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2848,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2846\/revisions\/2848"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2847"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2846"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2846"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2846"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}