{"id":322,"date":"2024-09-07T17:23:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-07T21:23:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/?p=322"},"modified":"2026-02-02T01:02:10","modified_gmt":"2026-02-02T06:02:10","slug":"yield-curve-rapidly-uninverting-very-bullish-for-gold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/articles\/yield-curve-rapidly-uninverting-very-bullish-for-gold\/","title":{"rendered":"Yield Curve Rapidly Uninverting, Very Bullish for Gold"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Less than one year ago on September 29, 2023, NIA sent out an alert<\/span><\/strong> highlighting<\/strong><\/span> how the U.S. Treasury 10 minus 1 year yield spread<\/strong> was inverted by -90 basis points<\/strong><\/span>. NIA created an exclusive<\/span> chart<\/strong> showing how when the U.S. Treasury 10 minus 1 year yield spread<\/strong> is inverted by -40 basis points<\/strong><\/span> or more with a gold price<\/strong><\/span> of less than<\/span> 5%<\/span><\/strong> of M2 Money Supply Per Capita<\/strong>, gold<\/strong><\/span> averages<\/strong><\/span> a gain of 60.56%<\/strong><\/span> over the following twelve months.\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/span> was $1,848.10 per oz<\/strong><\/span> on September 29, 2023, and gold<\/strong><\/span> settled<\/strong><\/span> yesterday at $2,497.09 per oz<\/strong><\/span>. Gold<\/strong><\/span> has gained by 35.12%<\/strong><\/span> in less than<\/span> twelve months<\/strong>, but this is actually below<\/strong><\/span> the long-term<\/strong> average<\/strong><\/span> gold price <\/strong><\/span>gain<\/strong><\/span> under these conditions.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

Gold’s <\/strong><\/span>largest <\/strong><\/span>short-term<\/strong><\/span> gains<\/strong><\/span> typically occur in the months following the yield curve uninverting<\/span><\/strong>, which is when the recession <\/strong><\/span>begins<\/strong><\/span>, and gold stocks<\/strong><\/span> begin to lead the market as the #1 largest percentage gainers<\/strong><\/span>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

On Friday, the U.S. Treasury 10 minus 1 year yield spread<\/strong> returned to above<\/strong><\/span> the critical -40 basis point inversion<\/strong><\/span> level for the first time since October 2022, which is a sign that the yield curve<\/strong> is getting ready<\/strong><\/span> to uninvert<\/strong><\/span> and the recession<\/strong><\/span> is imminent<\/strong><\/span> alongside a massive stampede<\/strong><\/span> into the highest quality<\/span> gold mining\/exploration stocks<\/span><\/strong>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ever since October 2022<\/strong> when the U.S. Treasury 10 minus 1 year yield spread inverted to below -40 basis points<\/span><\/strong>, gold<\/strong><\/span> has consistently<\/span> achieved positive<\/span> forward 12-month returns<\/strong>, and gold’s<\/span> forward 12-month returns<\/strong> have been steadily increasing<\/strong><\/span>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

NIA has created<\/strong><\/span> an updated<\/span> chart<\/strong> to account for the last 23 months of the U.S. Treasury 10 minus 1 year yield spread<\/strong> being inverted by -40 basis points<\/strong><\/span>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/span> now achieves an average<\/span> forward 12-month gain of 49.07%<\/span><\/strong> under these conditions. From gold’s<\/span> Thursday settlement price<\/strong> of $2,509.55 per oz<\/strong><\/span> (the most recent day meeting these conditions), a forward 12-month gain of 49.07%<\/span><\/strong> would result in gold<\/span> reaching<\/span> $3,741 per oz<\/span><\/strong> by this time next year.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. NIA is not an investment advisor and does not provide investment advice. Always do your own research and make your own investment decisions. This message is meant for informational and educational purposes only and does not provide investment advice.<\/em><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Less than one year ago on September 29, 2023, NIA sent out an alert highlighting how the U.S. Treasury 10 minus 1 year yield spread was inverted by -90 basis points. NIA created an exclusive chart showing how when the U.S. Treasury 10 minus 1 year yield spread is inverted by -40 basis points or […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":325,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[9,27],"class_list":["post-322","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-gold","tag-yields"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/322","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=322"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/322\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6720,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/322\/revisions\/6720"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/325"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=322"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=322"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=322"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}