{"id":3727,"date":"2025-09-23T08:30:44","date_gmt":"2025-09-23T12:30:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/?p=3727"},"modified":"2026-01-30T13:37:55","modified_gmt":"2026-01-30T18:37:55","slug":"where-will-gold-peak-and-how-much-upside-do-gold-stocks-have-left","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/articles\/where-will-gold-peak-and-how-much-upside-do-gold-stocks-have-left\/","title":{"rendered":"Where Will Gold Peak and How Much Upside Do Gold Stocks Have Left?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p data-end=\"515\" data-start=\"220\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><span style=\"font-family:Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;\">Unlike one year ago when <strong>NIA <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">predicted<\/span><\/strong> the <strong>September 2025 <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">gold price<\/span><\/strong> with <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\"><strong>greater accuracy<\/strong><\/span> than any other organization in the world, we have <strong><span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\">no<\/span> <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\">reliable<\/span> systems <\/strong>for <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\"><strong>forecasting<\/strong><\/span> the <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\"><strong>gold price<\/strong><\/span> based on today&rsquo;s <strong>financial markets<\/strong> and <strong>economic conditions<\/strong>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n<p data-end=\"550\" data-start=\"517\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><span style=\"font-family:Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;\">However, to put things into perspective:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n<ul data-end=\"754\" data-start=\"551\">\n\t<li data-end=\"671\" data-start=\"551\">\n\t<p data-end=\"671\" data-start=\"553\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><span style=\"font-family:Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;\">The <strong>September 2011 <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">gold <\/span><span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\">peak<\/span><\/strong>, <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\"><strong>adjusted<\/strong><\/span> for <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>growth<\/strong><\/span> in <strong>M2 Money Supply per capita<\/strong>, would equal <strong data-end=\"662\" data-start=\"646\">$3,985.64 per oz<\/strong> today.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\t<\/li>\n\t<li data-end=\"754\" data-start=\"672\">\n\t<p data-end=\"754\" data-start=\"674\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><span style=\"font-family:Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;\">The <strong>January 1980 <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">gold <\/span><span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\">peak<\/span><\/strong>, <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\"><strong>adjusted<\/strong><\/span> for <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>growth<\/strong><\/span> in <strong>M2 Money Supply per capita<\/strong>, would equal <strong data-end=\"745\" data-start=\"729\">$8,369.74 per oz<\/strong> today.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\t<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<p data-end=\"1293\" data-start=\"756\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><span style=\"font-family:Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\"><strong>Gold<\/strong><\/span> is likely headed <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>significantly higher<\/strong><\/span> than <strong>$3,985.64 per oz<\/strong> over the next several years. But, even in a <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\"><strong>sideways<\/strong><\/span> or <span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\"><strong>corrective<\/strong><\/span> phase, <strong>Contango ORE (CTGO)<\/strong> has such a <strong><span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\">low<\/span> enterprise value\/free cash flow<\/strong> ratio that it is likely to <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>rise<\/strong><\/span> over the next twelve months under all conditions.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n<h3 data-end=\"1342\" data-start=\"1295\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><span style=\"font-family:Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;\">Why Today&rsquo;s Market Is Different from 2011<\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n\n<p data-end=\"1449\" data-start=\"1343\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><span style=\"font-family:Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;\">On February 3, 2011, <strong>Newmont (NEM) <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">announced<\/span> <\/strong>a deal to<strong> <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">acquire<\/span><\/strong> <strong data-end=\"1398\" data-start=\"1381\">Fronteer Gold<\/strong> for <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>$2.3 billion<\/strong><\/span>. Altogether,<strong> Fronteer <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">owned<\/span><\/strong> <strong data-end=\"1826\" data-start=\"1794\"><span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">4.2 million oz<\/span> measured &amp; indicated<\/strong> and <strong data-end=\"1851\" data-start=\"1831\"><span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">1.7 million oz<\/span> inferred<\/strong> resources. <strong>Newmont<\/strong> effectively <strong><span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">paid<\/span><\/strong> <strong data-end=\"1899\" data-start=\"1888\">$390 per oz<\/strong> at a time when <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\"><strong>gold<\/strong><\/span> traded at <strong>$1,350 per oz <\/strong>thereby valuing <strong>Fronteer&rsquo;s <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">gold resources<\/span> <\/strong>at <strong data-end=\"1991\" data-start=\"1969\">28.9% of <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">spot gold<\/span><\/strong>. Today, that would <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\"><strong>equate<\/strong><\/span> to <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>paying<\/strong><\/span> <strong data-end=\"2049\" data-start=\"2036\">$1,080 per oz<\/strong> of <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\"><strong>gold resources<\/strong><\/span>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n<p data-end=\"2100\" data-start=\"2060\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><span style=\"font-family:Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;\">Contrast this with today&rsquo;s valuations:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n<ul data-end=\"2385\" data-start=\"2101\">\n\t<li data-end=\"2222\" data-start=\"2101\">\n\t<p data-end=\"2222\" data-start=\"2103\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><span style=\"font-family:Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;\"><strong>Lahontan Gold (TSXV: LG) <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">owner<\/span> <\/strong>of the<strong> Santa Fe <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">Gold Project<\/span><\/strong> in Nevada (ranked the <strong data-end=\"2193\" data-start=\"2157\"><span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">#2 best <\/span>mining jurisdiction <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\">worldwide<\/span><\/strong>) trades at only <strong>~$15 per oz<\/strong>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\t<\/li>\n\t<li data-end=\"2385\" data-start=\"2223\">\n\t<p data-end=\"2385\" data-start=\"2225\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><span style=\"font-family:Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;\"><strong>First Mining Gold (TSX: FF)<\/strong> <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>owner<\/strong><\/span> of the <strong>Springpole <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">Gold Project<\/span><\/strong> in Ontario (ranked the <strong data-end=\"2193\" data-start=\"2157\"><span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">#15 best <\/span>mining jurisdiction <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\">worldwide<\/span><\/strong>) trades at only <strong>~$25 per oz<\/strong><strong data-end=\"2382\" data-start=\"2372\"> <\/strong>when <strong>Springpole<\/strong> is likely to be the <strong><span style=\"color:#27ae60\">next<\/span> <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\">major<\/span> Canadian <span style=\"color:#f1c40f\">gold project<\/span> <\/strong>to <strong><span style=\"color:#2980b9\">secure<\/span> EA approval <\/strong>for <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\"><strong>future<\/strong><\/span><span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong> development<\/strong><\/span> into a <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>producing <\/strong><\/span><span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\"><strong>gold mine<\/strong><\/span>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\t<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<p data-end=\"2748\" data-start=\"2387\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><span style=\"font-family:Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;\">Back in February 2011, the <strong><span style=\"color:#2980b9;\">median<\/span> North American <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">gold exploration &amp; development<\/span> company<\/strong> had <strong><span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">gold resources<\/span><\/strong> valued at <strong data-end=\"2505\" data-start=\"2480\">7.82% of <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">gold&rsquo;s price<\/span><\/strong>, or <strong>$105.57 per oz<\/strong>. <strong>Newmont <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">paid<\/span><\/strong> a <strong><span style=\"color:#2980b9;\">premium<\/span><\/strong> for <strong>Fronteer<\/strong> because of <strong>Nevada&rsquo;s jurisdictional <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\">quality<\/span><\/strong> and because <strong><span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">over<\/span> 50%<\/strong> of <strong>Fronteer&rsquo;s <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">gold resources<\/span><\/strong> were <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\"><strong>oxide gold<\/strong><\/span> <strong><span style=\"color:#2980b9;\">suitable<\/span><\/strong> for <strong><span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\">low-cost<\/span><\/strong> <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\"><strong>heap leaching<\/strong><\/span>. <strong>Lahontan&rsquo;s 44% <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">oxide gold<\/span> mix<\/strong> is <span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\"><strong>lower<\/strong><\/span>, but still <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>attractive<\/strong><\/span>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n<h3 data-end=\"2787\" data-start=\"2750\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><span style=\"font-family:Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;\">Valuations Are at Historic Lows<\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n\n<p data-end=\"3030\" data-start=\"2788\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><span style=\"font-family:Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;\">Never before has <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\"><strong>gold <\/strong><\/span><span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\"><strong>peaked<\/strong><\/span> with <strong>explorers and developers<\/strong> valued this <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\"><strong>cheaply<\/strong><\/span>. In 2026, we will see another <strong><span style=\"color:#2980b9;\">wave<\/span><\/strong> of <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>aggressive acquisitions<\/strong><\/span> like <strong>Newmont&rsquo;s Fronteer deal<\/strong>, as <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\"><strong>majors scramble<\/strong><\/span> for <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\"><strong>gold ounces<\/strong><\/span> in <strong><span style=\"color:#2980b9;\">tier-one<\/span> jurisdictions<\/strong>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n<p data-end=\"3200\" data-start=\"3032\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><span style=\"font-family:Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;\">At an <span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\"><strong>absolute minimum<\/strong><\/span>, the <strong><span style=\"color:#2980b9;\">median<\/span> valuation<\/strong> of <strong>North American explorers and developers<\/strong> should <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>revert<\/strong><\/span> to its <strong data-end=\"3188\" data-start=\"3141\">long-term <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\">median<\/span> of 2.77% <\/strong><strong data-end=\"3188\" data-start=\"3141\">of the<\/strong><strong data-end=\"3188\" data-start=\"3141\"> <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">gold price<\/span><\/strong>. Notably:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n<ul data-end=\"3360\" data-start=\"3201\">\n\t<li data-end=\"3284\" data-start=\"3201\">\n\t<p data-end=\"3284\" data-start=\"3203\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><span style=\"font-family:Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;\">In the <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>run-up<\/strong><\/span> to 2011, companies traded <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong data-end=\"3252\" data-start=\"3243\">above<\/strong><\/span> this <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\"><strong>median<\/strong><\/span> for <strong>8 of 9 years<\/strong>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\t<\/li>\n\t<li data-end=\"3360\" data-start=\"3285\">\n\t<p data-end=\"3360\" data-start=\"3287\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><span style=\"font-family:Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;\">Today, <strong>valuations<\/strong> have been <span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\"><strong data-end=\"3324\" data-start=\"3315\">below<\/strong><\/span> this <strong><span style=\"color:#2980b9;\">median<\/span><\/strong> for <strong>8 straight years <\/strong>(ever since the <strong>Bitcoin\/Crypto <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\">boom<\/span><\/strong> began in 2017).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\t<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"513\" src=\"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/firstmininggoldbiggestopportunityever-1024x513.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3269\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/firstmininggoldbiggestopportunityever-1024x513.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/firstmininggoldbiggestopportunityever-300x150.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/firstmininggoldbiggestopportunityever-768x385.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/firstmininggoldbiggestopportunityever-1536x770.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/firstmininggoldbiggestopportunityever.jpg 1590w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 data-end=\"3391\" data-start=\"3362\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><span style=\"font-family:Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;\">Supply Side Constraints<\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n\n<p data-end=\"3616\" data-start=\"3392\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><span style=\"font-family:Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;\">A <strong>decade<\/strong> of <strong><span style=\"color:#2980b9;\">chronic<\/span> <span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\">underinvestment<\/span><\/strong> has left<span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\"><strong> very few<\/strong><\/span> <strong><span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">high-quality<\/span><\/strong> <strong><span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\">undeveloped<\/span> <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">gold resources<\/span><\/strong> for <strong><span style=\"color:#2980b9;\">majors<\/span><\/strong> to <strong><span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">acquire<\/span><\/strong>. At the same time, <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>new<\/strong><\/span><span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\"><strong> gold discoveries<\/strong><\/span> are at <span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\"><strong>record lows<\/strong><\/span>. This <strong><span style=\"color:#2980b9;\">supply squeeze<\/span><\/strong> only <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>amplifies<\/strong><\/span> the <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\"><strong>opportunity<\/strong><\/span>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n<h3 data-end=\"3637\" data-start=\"3618\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><span style=\"font-family:Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;\">NIA&rsquo;s Outlook<\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n\n<p data-end=\"3935\" data-start=\"3638\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><span style=\"font-family:Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;\">While we <strong><span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\">cannot<\/span> <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">predict<\/span><\/strong> exactly where <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\"><strong>gold<\/strong><\/span> will <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>trade<\/strong><\/span> a year from now, NIA is <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\"><strong>confident<\/strong><\/span> that its <strong><span style=\"color:#2980b9;\">highlighted<\/span> <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">gold<\/span> exploration, development, and mining stock suggestions <\/strong>represent the <strong><span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">highest-quality<\/span><\/strong>, <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>most undiscovered <\/strong><\/span><span style=\"color:#2980b9;\"><strong>opportunities<\/strong><\/span> with the <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>greatest upside potential<\/strong><\/span>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n<p data-end=\"3935\" data-start=\"3638\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"><span style=\"font-family:Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;\"><em>Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. NIA is not an investment advisor and does not provide investment advice. Always do your own research and make your own investment decisions. NIA\u2019s President has purchased 5,000 shares of CTGO in the open market and intends to buy more shares. NIA has received compensation from CTGO of US$80,000 cash for a ten-month marketing contract. NIA has received compensation from FF of US$100,000 cash for a twelve-month marketing contract and previously received US$50,000 cash for a six-month marketing contract which has since expired. NIA\u2019s President has purchased 200,000 shares of LG in the open market and intends to buy more shares. NIA has received compensation from LG of US$50,000 cash for a six-month marketing contract. This message is meant for informational and educational purposes only and does not provide investment advice.<\/em><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Unlike one year ago when NIA predicted the September 2025 gold price with greater accuracy than any other organization in the world, we have no reliable systems for forecasting the gold price based on today&rsquo;s financial markets and economic conditions. However, to put things into perspective: The September 2011 gold peak, adjusted for growth in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3728,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[47,81,9,149],"class_list":["post-3727","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-ctgo","tag-ff","tag-gold","tag-lg"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3727","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3727"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3727\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6687,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3727\/revisions\/6687"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3728"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3727"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3727"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3727"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}