{"id":5154,"date":"2025-11-17T14:20:22","date_gmt":"2025-11-17T19:20:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/?p=5154"},"modified":"2025-11-17T14:41:46","modified_gmt":"2025-11-17T19:41:46","slug":"gold-explorers-wont-peak-until-bitcoin-collapses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/articles\/gold-explorers-wont-peak-until-bitcoin-collapses\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Explorers Won\u2019t Peak Until Bitcoin Collapses"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\nIn NIA’s opinion, Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR)<\/strong> and Bitcoin miners like MARA Holdings (MARA)<\/strong> still have 90%+ downside<\/span> ahead<\/strong>, and the final peak<\/strong> for our gold stock<\/span> suggestions<\/strong> won’t occur until MSTR<\/strong> and MARA<\/strong> have fully capitulated<\/strong><\/span>. Historically, the most explosive gains<\/strong><\/span> in gold stocks<\/strong><\/span> come after<\/strong> the prior mania sector collapses<\/span><\/strong>, which is why several of our top<\/span> gold<\/span> selections<\/strong> could ultimately peak at levels 1,000%+ above<\/span> today’s prices.<\/strong>\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

\nOne of the most important signals<\/strong><\/span> of where we are in the cycle is trading volume<\/strong> of the TSX Venture Composite Index<\/strong>, which is the most reliable<\/span> barometer<\/strong> for risk<\/strong><\/span> appetite<\/strong><\/span> in the junior mining sector<\/strong>.\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

\nDespite the TSX Venture<\/strong> beginning a new<\/span> bull market<\/strong> in 2023, it has not<\/span> produced a single week<\/strong> of trading volume above 450 million shares<\/strong>.
\nNot one.\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\nFor comparison:\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

2016–2018 (the weakest bull market in TSXV history)<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n

    30<\/strong> weeks above 450M<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n <\/li>\n

  • \n

    19.23%<\/strong> of all weeks<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

    2020–2021 (pandemic stimulus boom)<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n

      41<\/strong> weeks above 450M<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n <\/li>\n

    • \n

      39.42%<\/strong> of all weeks<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

      2010–2011 (the last major gold mania)<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

        \n
      • \n

        74<\/strong> weeks above 450M<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n <\/li>\n

      • \n

        71.15%<\/strong> of all weeks<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

        \nToday’s volume levels<\/strong> are below<\/strong><\/span> all of these cycles… including the weakest<\/strong><\/span> one. This confirms<\/span><\/strong> that retail speculation has not<\/span> yet entered the market<\/strong>, which is exactly what we expect during an early-stage accumulation phase.\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

        \nThe rally<\/strong><\/span> off the November 2023 low<\/span><\/strong> most closely resembles<\/strong><\/span> the low<\/span> volume 2002–2004 setup<\/strong>, when:\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

          \n
        • \n

          The TSX Venture quietly doubled<\/strong><\/span>,<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n <\/li>\n

        • \n

          Pulled back ~25%<\/strong><\/span> from a short-term top,<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n <\/li>\n

        • \n

          And then erupted<\/strong><\/span> into a three-year mania<\/span><\/strong> that did not peak until 2007… producing<\/span><\/strong> some of the largest<\/span> junior-mining gains<\/span><\/strong> of the past 30 years.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

          \nThe current market environment matches that period almost perfectly.\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

          \nA low<\/span> volume doubling<\/span><\/strong> is not<\/strong><\/span> a late-stage signal… it is the defining characteristic<\/strong><\/span> of the early<\/span> phase<\/strong> before the real money arrives<\/strong><\/span>.\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

          \nOnce the TSX Venture<\/strong> begins printing regular weeks above<\/span> 450M in volume<\/strong>, it will signal the transition<\/strong><\/span> from accumulation<\/strong><\/span> to expansion<\/strong><\/span>… historically the window when:\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

            \n
          • \n

            Discoveries<\/strong> begin to gap higher<\/strong><\/span>,<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n <\/li>\n

          • \n

            M&A premiums<\/span> surge<\/span><\/strong>,<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n <\/li>\n

          • \n

            And the top-performing<\/span> juniors<\/strong> rise 5x–15x<\/strong><\/span> within 12–24 months.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

            \nWe have not<\/strong><\/span> entered that phase yet.\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

            \nBut the setup is now in place.\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

            In NIA’s opinion, Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) and Bitcoin miners like MARA Holdings (MARA) still have 90%+ downside ahead, and the final peak for our gold stock suggestions won’t occur until MSTR and MARA have fully capitulated. Historically, the most explosive gains in gold stocks come after the prior mania sector collapses, which is why […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5156,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[104,9,119,176,17,8],"class_list":["post-5154","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-crypto","tag-gold","tag-mara","tag-mstr","tag-silver","tag-technology"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5154","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5154"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5154\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5159,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5154\/revisions\/5159"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5156"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5154"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5154"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5154"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}