{"id":6646,"date":"2026-01-28T10:07:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-28T15:07:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/?p=6646"},"modified":"2026-01-28T10:07:04","modified_gmt":"2026-01-28T15:07:04","slug":"how-nia-forecasts-gold-while-everyone-else-guesses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/articles\/how-nia-forecasts-gold-while-everyone-else-guesses\/","title":{"rendered":"How NIA Forecasts Gold While Everyone Else Guesses"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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NIA<\/strong> uses three independent, fully transparent methods<\/strong><\/span> to forecast gold prices <\/strong><\/span>and all three have proven to be exceptionally accurate<\/strong><\/span> in recent years.<\/p>\n\n

We could have kept these models private for our own benefit. Instead, NIA made a deliberate decision to fully disclose our analytical framework<\/span><\/strong>, step by step, so investors could understand exactly<\/strong> how our forecasts are constructed and why<\/strong> they work. This commitment to education is central to NIA’s mission and is the reason our forecasts carry real credibility.<\/p>\n\n

This approach stands in sharp contrast to the vast majority of social media “influencers” on YouTube and X, who routinely publish baseless price targets<\/span><\/strong> (Bitcoin at $500,000<\/strong> “by year-end”, altcoins at impossible valuations) without providing any methodology, data, or accountability. NIA does the opposite:<\/strong> we show the math<\/span><\/strong>, explain the logic, and publish our assumptions in advance.<\/p>\n\n

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Method #1:<\/span> The Yield Curve Method<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n

On September 7, 2024<\/strong>, NIA used its yield curve model to forecast that gold<\/strong><\/span>, then trading at $2,509.55 per ounce<\/strong>, would rise 49.07%<\/span><\/strong> over the next 12 months, reaching $3,741 per ounce<\/strong> by September 7, 2025<\/strong>. Click here<\/strong><\/a> to see for yourself.<\/p>\n\n

That forecast proved almost exact: gold<\/strong><\/span> surpassed<\/strong><\/span> $3,741 per ounce<\/strong> on September 22, 2025<\/strong>, just two weeks<\/span><\/strong> later than projected.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n

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Method #2:<\/span> The COT Data Method (Ted Butler)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Another NIA forecasting tool is our Commitments of Traders (COT) data model<\/strong>, taught to us by the late Ted Butler<\/strong>, the world’s foremost authority<\/strong><\/span> on precious-metals market structure. Click here<\/strong><\/a> to see for yourself.<\/p>\n\n

This method allowed NIA to identify the exact start<\/span><\/strong> of gold’s<\/strong><\/span> 2024–2026 rally<\/span><\/strong> in February 2024<\/strong>. Based on this signal, NIA suggested SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)<\/strong> March 28, 2024<\/strong>, $192 call options<\/strong>. Despite the short-term expiration and high risk, the trade gained 653.85%<\/span><\/strong> in six weeks<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n

Since that win, NIA has suggested options only once more. On March 27, 2025<\/strong>, NIA suggested Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SBSW)<\/strong> January 15, 2027<\/strong>, $5 call options<\/strong> at $1.24<\/strong>, stating:<\/p>\n\n

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“NIA suggests SBSW January 15, 2027, $5 call options currently priced at $1.24. We expect SBSW to be $20 per share by January 15, 2027, and for these call options to increase to $15 and become a 12-bagger!”<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n

Yesterday, SBSW surpassed $20 per share<\/strong> one full year ahead of schedule<\/span><\/strong>. NIA’s SBSW January 15, 2027, $5 call option closed yesterday at $15.10<\/strong> for a ten-month gain of 1,117.74%<\/span><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n

Several NIA members are asking whether it is worth holding until the January 15, 2027<\/strong> expiration. We would say yes<\/strong>, because platinum + palladium combined<\/strong> is still only $4,660 per ounce<\/strong> (about 0.88×<\/strong> the price of gold<\/strong><\/span>). Over the last 50 years, platinum + palladium combined has averaged a price equal to 1.75×<\/strong> the price of gold<\/strong><\/span>. Therefore, SBSW is likely to hit much higher new all-time highs between now and January 15, 2027, and should continue to outperform<\/strong><\/span> nearly all gold<\/span>\/silver<\/span> miners<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n

Ted Butler’s legendary last words from June 2024 were:<\/p>\n\n

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“After further consideration, the medical issues that have caused me to interrupt the service do not appear to be getting better anytime soon. As a result, please accept this as notice of the shutdown of Butler Research, LLC. Thank you all for the many years of support. It is somewhat ironic that at this point silver<\/span> never looked better to me. I think the biggest mistake<\/span> someone could make is selling<\/span> too soon.<\/strong>” —Ted Butler<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n

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Method #3:<\/span> NIA’s Gold Moon Indicator<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n

NIA’s most widely known model is the Gold Moon Indicator<\/span><\/strong>, introduced in mid-2022. It uses a set of three conditions that, when met together, have historically led to gold making massive gains over the following 12-, 24-, and 36-month<\/strong> time periods 100% of the time<\/span><\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n

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  1. A gold price of less than 2.75%<\/strong> of M2 Money Supply Per Capita<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\t
  2. A U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong> above 102<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\t
  3. A negative Real Fed Funds Rate<\/strong> (U.S. inflation higher than the Fed Funds Rate).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n

    On December 26, 2022<\/strong>, NIA published an alert entitled “Gold Moon Indicator Has Ended (Most Bullish Sign Possible for Imminent Gold Explosion)”<\/strong>, explaining that gold’s largest moves tend to occur immediately after the indicator is no longer in effect. The Gold Moon Indicator ended on November 30, 2022<\/strong>, with gold settling at $1,753.50 per ounce<\/strong>. Click here<\/strong><\/a> to see for yourself.<\/p>\n\n

    There were only three prior dates equivalent to November 30, 2022: February 29, 1972<\/strong>, September 30, 1977<\/strong>, and January 7, 2003<\/strong>. From these dates, gold gained 272.93%<\/strong>, 341.25%<\/strong>, and 59.67%<\/strong> over the following 36 months. NIA took the median and issued a forecast for gold to rise 272.93%<\/strong>, implying a price of $6,539.33 per ounce<\/strong> by November 30, 2025<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n

    At the time, nearly everyone was bearish on gold, with many predicting declines to $1,200–$1,500<\/strong>. Even today’s gold price of $5,270 per ounce<\/strong> would have been widely dismissed as impossible back then.<\/p>\n\n

    Gold has slightly lagged the model’s timing, but history shows timing delays do not invalidate the signal. In the 2003 cycle, gold’s first 36-month gain was only 59.67%<\/strong>, yet the rally ultimately continued into 2011. The odds strongly favor gold needing more time<\/span><\/strong>, not less, to reach and exceed the forecast level.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n

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    Positioning for Upside<\/span> Regardless of Gold’s Path<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n

    NIA prefers companies that can rise<\/strong><\/span> even if gold prices<\/span> correct<\/span><\/strong>. In our September 23rd alert, “Where Will Gold Peak and How Much Upside Do Gold Stocks Have Left?”<\/strong>, (click here<\/strong><\/a> to read) we identified First Mining Gold (TSX: FF)<\/strong> and Lahontan Gold (TSXV: LG)<\/strong> as two of the gold stocks trading at the lowest<\/span> market caps per ounce of gold resources<\/span><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n

    First Mining Gold (TSX: FF)<\/strong> gained 11.27%<\/span><\/strong> yesterday to a new<\/strong> 105-month high<\/strong><\/span> of $0.79 per share<\/strong>, and is up 409.68%<\/span><\/strong> since NIA’s June 1st suggestion at $0.155<\/strong>. With environmental approval for Springpole potentially coming within weeks, NIA believes FF is just getting started.<\/p>\n\n

    Lahontan Gold (TSXV: LG)<\/strong> gained 16.28%<\/span><\/strong> yesterday to a new<\/strong> 52-week high<\/strong><\/span> of $0.25<\/strong>. It trades at a market cap of only US$64.8 million<\/strong> with 1.95 million ounces AuEq<\/span><\/strong> of total resources (1,539,000 oz AuEq Indicated grading 0.99 g\/t AuEq + 411,000 oz AuEq Inferred grading 0.76 g\/t AuEq), valuing the company at just US$33.23 per ounce<\/strong>… equal to only 0.63%<\/strong> of the current gold spot price of $5,270<\/strong>. We would rather own LG<\/strong> at $33.23 per ounce<\/strong> than invest directly into gold<\/strong><\/span> at current prices.<\/p>\n\n

    Be sure to research NIA’s latest brand-new stock suggestion<\/span><\/strong> Super Copper (CSE: CUPR)<\/strong>. Apeiron Investment Group<\/strong> (backed by two billionaires<\/strong><\/span>) has already created six unicorns<\/strong><\/span> and CUPR<\/strong> is their first natural resource play<\/strong><\/span>. CUPR<\/strong> is developing<\/strong><\/span> proprietary technology<\/strong><\/span> designed to increase recoveries at copper mines<\/strong><\/span> worldwide and controls two district-scale<\/span> copper discoveries<\/span><\/strong> in Chile. Michael Dufresne<\/strong>, CEO of APEX Geoscience<\/strong>, is directly involved with CUPR’s projects<\/strong> and has evaluated thousands of properties. Additionally, CUPR<\/strong> includes board-level involvement connected to Ivanhoe Electric (IE)<\/strong>, founded by billionaire<\/strong><\/span> Robert Friedland<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n

    Eric Sprott investing<\/span> $40 million<\/span> <\/strong>into NIA's #1 favorite<\/span> silver stock suggestion<\/span> Highlander Silver (TSX: HSLV) <\/strong>yesterday is absolutely huge<\/span><\/strong>. It should put a floor<\/strong><\/span> under HSLV<\/strong> at $6.80 per share<\/strong> and give investors the confidence needed for the imminent<\/strong><\/span> rally<\/strong><\/span> toward $20+ per share<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n

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    Past performance is not indicative of future results. NIA is not an investment advisor and does not provide investment advice. Always do your own research and make your own investment decisions. NIA’s President has purchased 125,000 shares of HSLV and can buy or sell shares at any time. NIA’s President has purchased 200,000 shares of LG in the open market and intends to buy more shares. NIA has received compensation from LG of US$50,000 cash for a six-month marketing contract. NIA has received compensation from FF of US$100,000 cash for a twelve-month marketing contract and previously received US$50,000 cash for a six-month marketing contract which has since expired. NIA has received US$30,000 cash from CUPR for a three-month marketing contract. This communication is for informational and educational purposes only. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    NIA uses three independent, fully transparent methods to forecast gold prices and all three have proven to be exceptionally accurate in recent years. We could have kept these models private for our own benefit. Instead, NIA made a deliberate decision to fully disclose our analytical framework, step by step, so investors could understand exactly how […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6647,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[48,230,81,9,16,149,20,19,22,17],"class_list":["post-6646","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-copper","tag-cupr","tag-ff","tag-gold","tag-hslv","tag-lg","tag-palladium","tag-platinum","tag-sbsw","tag-silver"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6646","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6646"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6646\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6648,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6646\/revisions\/6648"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6647"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6646"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6646"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6646"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}