{"id":6817,"date":"2023-10-11T12:16:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-11T17:16:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/?p=6817"},"modified":"2026-02-08T15:17:55","modified_gmt":"2026-02-08T20:17:55","slug":"the-biggest-mystery-in-financial-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/articles\/the-biggest-mystery-in-financial-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"The Biggest Mystery in Financial Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<!-- MOBILE-FRIENDLY WRAPPER -->\n<div style=\"font-family:Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size:14px; line-height:1.55; color:#000; width:100%; max-width:100%;\">\n\n  <p style=\"margin:0 0 14px 0; color:#000;\">\n    The <strong><span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">biggest<\/span> <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\">mystery<\/span><\/strong> in\n    <strong>financial markets<\/strong> today is how so many people have been\n    <span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\"><strong>suckered<\/strong><\/span> into\n    <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>buying<\/strong><\/span>\n    <strong>iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)<\/strong>. We\n    <span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\"><strong>can\u2019t<\/strong><\/span>\n    <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\"><strong>imagine<\/strong><\/span> any kind of\n    <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>bullish<\/strong><\/span> <strong>investment thesis<\/strong> for\n    <strong>TLT<\/strong>. In our opinion, <strong>investors<\/strong> who have\n    <strong><span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">purchased<\/span> TLT<\/strong> were\n    <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\"><strong>seeking a safe haven<\/strong><\/span> but\n    <strong><span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\">mistakenly<\/span> <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">purchased<\/span><\/strong> the\n    <strong><span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\">worst possible<\/span> <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">asset<\/span><\/strong> they\n    could <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>buy<\/strong><\/span> at this time.\n  <\/p>\n\n  <p style=\"margin:0 0 14px 0; color:#000;\">\n    Since May 7, 2021, <strong>TLT<\/strong> has seen its\n    <strong>shares outstanding <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">increase<\/span><\/strong> from\n    <strong>87.2 million <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">up to<\/span> 434.4 million<\/strong>\n    at Tuesday\u2019s close of trading! This is a\n    <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>5-fold increase<\/strong><\/span> in\n    <strong>TLT <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">ownership<\/span><\/strong> in only\n    <strong>29 months<\/strong>! The <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\"><strong>fact<\/strong><\/span> that\n    <strong>millions of Americans<\/strong> have\n    <strong><span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">invested into<\/span> TLT<\/strong> at the\n    <strong><span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\">worst possible<\/span> time<\/strong> is the\n    <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>#1 most bullish<\/strong><\/span>\n    <strong>scenario<\/strong> for <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\"><strong>gold<\/strong><\/span>!\n  <\/p>\n\n  <!-- IMAGE -->\n  <div style=\"margin:0 0 14px 0; text-align:center;\">\n    <img decoding=\"async\"\n      src=\"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sharesoutstandinggldtlt.jpg\"\n      alt=\"Shares outstanding comparison: GLD vs TLT\"\n      style=\"display:block; width:100%; max-width:700px; height:auto; margin:0 auto; border:0; outline:none;\"\n    \/>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <p style=\"margin:0 0 14px 0; color:#000;\">\n    <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\"><strong>SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)<\/strong><\/span> would have provided the\n    <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\"><strong>perfect safe haven<\/strong><\/span>\n    <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>asset<\/strong><\/span> investors were seeking, but\n    <strong>social media<\/strong>\n    <span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\"><strong>brainwashed<\/strong><\/span> them into\n    <span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\"><strong>burning away<\/strong><\/span> their\n    <strong>savings<\/strong> by\n    <strong><span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">buying<\/span> TLT<\/strong>! Since September 21, 2020,\n    <strong><span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">GLD<\/span><\/strong> has seen its\n    <strong>shares outstanding <span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\">decline<\/span><\/strong> from\n    <strong>437.8 million <span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\">down to<\/span> 298.6 million<\/strong>\n    at Tuesday\u2019s close of trading \u2014 a\n    <span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\"><strong>31.8% decline<\/strong><\/span> over\n    <strong>37 months<\/strong>, the\n    <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\"><strong>longest ever duration<\/strong><\/span> of a\n    <span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\"><strong>decline<\/strong><\/span> in\n    <strong><span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">GLD<\/span> shares outstanding<\/strong>.\n  <\/p>\n\n  <p style=\"margin:0 0 14px 0; color:#000;\">\n    Between December 10, 2012, and December 17, 2015,\n    <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\"><strong>GLD<\/strong><\/span> saw its\n    <strong>shares outstanding <span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\">decline<\/span><\/strong> for\n    <strong>36 months<\/strong>. <strong><span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">Gold<\/span>\n    <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">bottomed<\/span><\/strong> on December 17, 2015 at\n    <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\"><strong>$1,050 per oz<\/strong><\/span> and over the following\n    seven months <strong><span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">gold<\/span>\n    <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">rallied by 30.95%<\/span><\/strong> as\n    <strong>VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX)\n    <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">gained 138.30%<\/span><\/strong> and\n    <strong>VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)\n    <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">gained 180%<\/span><\/strong>. Some of the\n    <strong><span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">highest-quality<\/span>\n    <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">gold exploration stocks<\/span><\/strong> achieved gains of\n    <strong><span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">1,000%\u201310,000%<\/span><\/strong> during this same\n    <strong>seven-month<\/strong> period.\n  <\/p>\n\n  <p style=\"margin:0 0 14px 0; color:#000;\">\n    The <strong>odds<\/strong> are <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>high<\/strong><\/span> that\n    <strong><span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">GLD<\/span> shares outstanding<\/strong> are at or near a\n    <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>bottom<\/strong><\/span> and will\n    <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>rapidly rise<\/strong><\/span> in the months ahead as\n    <strong>managed-money <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">gold<\/span>\n    <span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\">shorts<\/span><\/strong> are\n    <span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\"><strong>forced<\/strong><\/span> to\n    <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>cover<\/strong><\/span> in the\n    <strong>futures + options market<\/strong>.\n  <\/p>\n\n  <p style=\"margin:0 0 14px 0; color:#000;\">\n    This <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\"><strong>perfect storm scenario<\/strong><\/span> of\n    <strong><span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">GLD<\/span> <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">buying<\/span><\/strong>\n    after a <strong><span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">record<\/span> 37 months<\/strong> of\n    <span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\"><strong>outflows<\/strong><\/span> alongside a\n    <strong><span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\">short<\/span>\n    <span style=\"color:#2980b9;\">squeeze<\/span><\/strong> in the\n    <strong><span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">gold<\/span> futures + options market<\/strong> will not only\n    send <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\"><strong>gold<\/strong><\/span> to\n    <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>new all-time highs<\/strong><\/span>, but will send shares of\n    the <strong><span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">highest quality<\/span>\n    <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">gold explorers<\/span><\/strong> to prices\n    <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\"><strong>1,000%\u201310,000% above<\/strong><\/span> today\u2019s levels.\n  <\/p>\n\n  <p style=\"margin:0 0 14px 0; color:#000;\">\n    <em><strong>\n      It <span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\">won\u2019t be long<\/span> until TLT investors realize that their\n      best hope to <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">regain<\/span> their\n      <span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\">losses<\/span> from the\n      <span style=\"color:#e74c3c;\">collapsing<\/span> bond market is by\n      <span style=\"color:#27ae60;\">investing into<\/span>\n      <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">GLD<\/span> and\n      <span style=\"color:#f1c40f;\">gold mining \/ exploration stocks<\/span>!\n    <\/strong><\/em>\n  <\/p>\n\n  <p style=\"margin:0; color:#000; font-size:13px;\">\n    <em>\n      Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. NIA is not an investment advisor and does not provide\n      investment advice. Always do your own research and make your own investment decisions. This message is not a\n      solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. This message is meant for informational and educational\n      purposes only.\n    <\/em>\n  <\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The biggest mystery in financial markets today is how so many people have been suckered into buying iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). We can\u2019t imagine any kind of bullish investment thesis for TLT. In our opinion, investors who have purchased TLT were seeking a safe haven but mistakenly purchased the worst possible [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6819,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[245,28,9],"class_list":["post-6817","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-bonds","tag-etfs","tag-gold"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6817","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6817"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6817\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6820,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6817\/revisions\/6820"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6819"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6817"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6817"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6817"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}