{"id":7339,"date":"2025-10-23T10:41:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-23T14:41:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/?p=7339"},"modified":"2026-03-16T18:48:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T22:48:21","slug":"we-are-in-stock-pickers-market-tsx-venture-could-trade-sideways-for-six-months","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/articles\/we-are-in-stock-pickers-market-tsx-venture-could-trade-sideways-for-six-months\/","title":{"rendered":"We’re in Stock Pickers Market, TSX Venture Could Trade\u00a0Sideways\u00a0for Six Months"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The TSX Venture Composite Index<\/strong> is likely to trade sideways<\/strong><\/span> for the next six months. For NIA this is the perfect type of environment<\/strong><\/span> because we focus on real<\/strong><\/span> research<\/strong> and identifying companies that have genuine development potential<\/strong><\/span> versus those that are simply "promotional stories"<\/strong> with little chance of becoming real mines.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

Although the long-term odds remain high that gold<\/strong><\/span> could eventually reach $6,500 per oz<\/strong>, even a correction to $2,700 per oz<\/strong> would not necessarily derail the upside potential<\/strong><\/span> for undervalued<\/strong><\/span> gold exploration<\/strong><\/span> companies. That’s because most sectors of the market remain extremely<\/strong><\/span> overvalued<\/strong><\/span>, while many quality gold development companies continue to trade at deeply discounted<\/span> valuations<\/strong>. In our view, these are among the only truly undervalued<\/span><\/strong> areas left in the entire market. In fact, it is much easier for us to say Viva Gold (TSXV: VAU)<\/strong>, Lahontan Gold (TSXV: LG)<\/strong>, and First Mining Gold (TSX: FF)<\/strong> will all be trading significantly higher<\/strong><\/span> one year from now than it is to confidently predict where the price of gold<\/strong><\/span> will be.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

While the market often assigns higher valuations to companies with the most promotion<\/strong><\/span> rather than the best projects<\/strong><\/span>, these types of inefficiencies create opportunity for investors willing to do proper due diligence. A company like Viva Gold (TSXV: VAU)<\/strong> stands out as having an extremely high probability<\/strong><\/span> of eventually being developed<\/strong><\/span> into a producing mine, yet it currently trades at a very modest valuation<\/strong><\/span> compared to many other exploration-stage companies.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

For a major producer like Kinross Gold (KGC)<\/strong>, acquiring a project such as Viva Gold's Tonopah<\/strong> asset could make tremendous strategic sense<\/strong><\/span>. In fact, paying a substantial premium<\/span><\/strong> to acquire Viva Gold (TSXV: VAU)<\/strong> could still represent an attractive transaction for Kinross relative to the long-term value the project could provide.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

We don't think the TSX Venture's<\/strong> lows<\/strong><\/span> from 2023 will ever be seen again, but it has been up<\/strong><\/span> for so many<\/span> months in a row<\/strong> that there is likely to be resistance<\/span><\/strong> around the 2021 highs<\/span><\/strong>. Ultimately, it will break out<\/strong><\/span> to well above<\/strong><\/span> the 2021 highs<\/strong>, but probably not immediately<\/strong><\/span>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

This means that in 2026<\/strong> it will no longer<\/span> be possible<\/strong> to blindly throw a dart<\/span><\/strong> at high-risk<\/strong><\/span> gold stocks<\/strong><\/span> and make money<\/strong><\/span>. Instead, capital will increasingly flow toward companies that have projects capable of actually advancing toward production<\/strong><\/span>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

Kinross Gold's Round Mountain Phase W<\/strong> (the final major open-pit layback) is scheduled to conclude in 2025<\/strong>, which is expected to create a near-term<\/span> production<\/span> dip<\/span><\/strong>. Future phases… Phase S<\/strong> and the Phase X underground development<\/strong>… are designed to sustain output<\/strong><\/span> later in the decade, but both involve transitional risk<\/span><\/strong>, capital intensity<\/strong>, and potential grade variability<\/strong>. The Gold Hill<\/strong> deposit will add longevity but is smaller<\/strong><\/span> and later-stage<\/strong>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n

This is where Viva Gold's Tonopah Project<\/strong> becomes strategically important. Tonopah<\/strong> sits in the same <\/span>district<\/strong> as Round Mountain<\/strong> and is located roughly a 20-minute drive<\/span><\/strong> away, making it a logical potential satellite<\/span> deposit<\/strong> that could help extend the life of the operation. <\/span><\/span>It would not be surprising to eventually see <\/span>Tonopah<\/strong> supply material to <\/span>Round Mountain <\/strong>through a transaction. Importantly, even without a near-term acquisition, we see <\/span>limited downside risk<\/strong><\/span> for <\/span>Viva<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n\n

Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. NIA is not an investment advisor and does not provide investment advice. Always do your own research and make your own investment decisions. NIA’s President has purchased 100,000 shares of VAU and may buy more shares or sell his shares at any time. NIA’s President has purchased 200,000 shares of LG in the open market and intends to buy more shares. NIA has received compensation from LG of US$30,000 cash for a three-month marketing contract. NIA has received compensation from FF of US$50,000 cash for a six-month marketing contract. This message is meant for informational and educational purposes only.<\/em><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The TSX Venture Composite Index is likely to trade sideways for the next six months. For NIA this is the perfect type of environment because we focus on real research and identifying companies that have genuine development potential versus those that are simply "promotional stories" with little chance of becoming real mines. Although the long-term […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4671,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[81,9,58,149,150],"class_list":["post-7339","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-ff","tag-gold","tag-kgc","tag-lg","tag-vau"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7339","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7339"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7339\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7340,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7339\/revisions\/7340"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4671"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7339"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7339"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.inflation.us\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7339"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}