TheGlobe.com (TGLO)'s parent company Delfin Midstream will succeed where Tellurian (TELL) failed. A lot of it comes down to project economics. TELL required $12 billion in upfront financing for the first phase of construction of its Driftwood LNG Project, with total Driftwood LNG Project initial CAPEX estimated to be $30 billion (assuming no cost overruns, and cost overruns are common with land-based LNG projects). TELL's Driftwood LNG Project would have total export capacity of 27.6 MTPA but this would amount to initial CAPEX of $1,087/TPA.
For a land-based LNG project equal to the size of TELL's Driftwood you need to get initial CAPEX down to only $600-$700/TPA for the economics to make sense and for the project to attract financing. For a smaller, less-risky land-based LNG project with total export capacity of only 10 MTPA, initial CAPEX in the $750-$950/TPA range might be financeable.
TGLO could become the second most valuable U.S. LNG company after only Cheniere Energy (LNG), because Delfin Midstream's Delfin LNG Project is a fully permitted deep-water LNG port with non-FTA export license capacity of 13 MTPA. Combined with Delfin Midstream's adjacent Avocet LNG Project where they are seeking to obtain permitting for a second deep-water LNG port with an additional 14 MTPA of non-FTA export license capacity, TGLO's parent company Delfin Midstream could soon have total non-FTA export license capacity of 27 MTPA.
This will be roughly equal in size to what TELL was attempting to achieve at Driftwood, but Delfin's initial CAPEX will amount to only $550/TPA or approximately 1/2 the cost of TELL's Driftwood. By using FLNG technology, not only will Delfin achieve America's lowest initial CAPEX/TPA, but the Delfin LNG Project is considered by institutional investors to be the lowest risk of all U.S. LNG projects since it can be financed one FLNG vessel at a time! Each FLNG vessel will have an export capacity of 3.5 MTPA and costs less than $2 billion to build! With Delfin already receiving large pre-Final Investment Decision investments in recent weeks from Vitol and Devon Energy, it is possible that Delfin only needs to finance $1 billion to make the Final Investment Decision on their first FLNG vessel, which Delfin expects to make before year-end followed by their merger into TGLO!
Look for TGLO to surpass TELL in share price within weeks.
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