NIA’s BVSN 5th Largest Gainer in U.S. Today

NIA’s latest stock suggestion BroadVision Inc. (BVSN) was the 5th largest percentage gainer in the U.S. on Tuesday rising 24% to finish the day at $21.76. BVSN this morning reached a new 52-week high of $23 for a gain of 177% since NIA first suggested it on December 12th at $8.31. BVSN traded unbelievably huge volume today of 793,148 shares, its highest volume in years.

NIA has been saying in recent days that those who were already taking profits on BVSN were going to regret it big time and they already are right now. NIA still hasn’t sold a single share. NIA still considers BVSN to be nowhere near its peak. BVSN will continue to be very volatile and we will likely see many more dips in the months ahead, but fundamentally we feel strongly that BVSN deserves to be trading substantially higher and we are confident about BVSN continuing its trend of reaching higher highs and dipping to higher lows.

BVSN still only has an enterprise value of $41.46 million. If you subtract a very conservative value for BVSN’s old products of $15 million, Clearvale is only being valued at $26.46 million. This doesn’t even come close to reflecting what we believe Clearvale is worth based on recent transactions in this industry.

As we pointed out yesterday, it appears as though the same institutions accumulating BVSN are also accumulating Saba Software (SABA). In our opinion, SABA’s enterprise social platform is a low-tier solution in this space with nowhere near the potential of BVSN’s Clearvale. NIA considers Clearvale to be one of the top-tier platforms in this space along with JIVE and Lithium.

Even with an inferior product, SABA has increased in market cap since its close on January 5th by $73.56 million. NIA believes that not only is this $73.56 million increase in market cap for SABA directly attributed to investors buying SABA for their enterprise social platform, but we believe all of SABA’s gains since it averaged $5 per share in 2010 are because of Saba Social. Therefore, we estimate the market to be valuing SABA’s social platform at $145.33 million.

NIA feels strongly that Clearvale deserves to be valued substantially higher than Saba Social. However, if we were to value Clearvale at the same as what we estimate Saba Social is currently valued at, a valuation for Clearvale of $145.33 million along with BVSN’s $56.79 million in cash and a $15 million valuation for BVSN’s old products equals a total market cap for BVSN of $217.12 million. With only 4.515 million shares outstanding, NIA believes BVSN would need to be $48 per share for Clearvale just to equal the current value of Saba Social, and we believe Clearvale deserves to be worth a lot closer to JIVE’s platform valuation.

BVSN announced today that Clearvale will be the social business platform used for the Digital London Summit coming up on March 13-14! We strongly suggest checking out the homepage for Digital London: http://www.digitallon.com

You will see the BroadVision logo together with Microsoft, Cisco, Adobe, and Juniper! BVSN is going to receive a tremendous amount of exposure for Clearvale at Digital London. BVSN’s CEO Dr. Chen will be speaking there about “How Social Networking will Change the Way We Work.”

See for yourself: http://www.digitallon.com/index.php/Summit-Conference.html

Disclaimer: NIA owns 151,900 shares of BVSN that it purchased at an average price of $9.2639 per share. NIA agreed to a 60 day holding period on its initial position of 122,000 shares starting from the date that NIA first suggested the company, but NIA intends to sell these 122,000 shares at some point in the future after the date of February 12th, 2012. NIA intends to sell its additional 29,900 shares of BVSN in the future and can sell them at any time. NIA’s co-founders have also been referred business in the past from somebody who has filed as a large BVSN shareholder. NIA also reserves the right to accumulate additional shares of BVSN at any time. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. NIA is not an investment advisor. This email is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. Never make investment decisions based on anything NIA says. This email is meant for informational and educational purposes only and does not provide investment advice.