NIA’s BVSN Biggest Gainer of 2012
NIA is very pleased that its latest stock suggestion BroadVision Inc. (BVSN) is the largest percentage gainer of 2012 out of all U.S. stocks trading above $3 per share. See for yourself by clicking here.
BVSN finished Friday up 12% to $27, its highest close since we suggested it. BVSN reached a new 52-week high earlier in the day of $30.25. BVSN traded its highest volume all year on Friday of 1,087,827 shares.
BVSN remains a 100% perfect technical buy with all short, medium, and long-term indicators rating BVSN a buy. The next resistance level is $33.57: http://barchart.com/opinions/stocks/BVSN
As NIA informed you on Thursday evening, a $30 billion Japanese telecommunications firm Softbank has just begun offering Clearvale Express and Clearvale Enterprise to their customer base. This validates BVSN’s social networking platform for businesses as a top-tier solution in an industry expected to grow by 61% per year to become a $6.4 billion market by 2016. Wall Street pays huge premiums for companies that are positioned for rapid revenue growth and BVSN has been shifting away from their old products with declining revenues to focus solely on Clearvale with the goal of capturing a large market share in the years ahead.
At a share price of only $27, BVSN’s Clearvale is being valued at a large discount to the values being received for the enterprise social platforms of BVSN’s two closest publicly traded comparisons. In our opinion, BVSN is by far the biggest opportunity in this space with the most upside potential. We increased our BVSN position significantly this week and still haven’t sold a single share. NIA is not going to be releasing any new stock suggestions until BVSN is trading where NIA believes it belongs.
We estimate that BVSN’s Clearvale social networking platform for businesses is currently being valued at approximately $50 million. NIA believes Clearvale is a many times better enterprise social platform than SABA’s Saba Social, but at SABA’s current share price of $9.99, we estimate Saba Social is currently being valued at approximately $149 million.
NIA considers Saba Social to be a low-tier platform. We consider BVSN’s Clearvale to be a top-tier platform along with JIVE’s social platform for businesses. At JIVE’s current share price of $15.25, NIA estimates the market to currently be valuing JIVE’s social platform at $699.77 million.
If BVSN’s Clearvale was valued at $149 million like SABA’s low-tier platform, BVSN would be trading for $48.90 per share. If BVSN’s Clearvale was valued at $699.77 million like JIVE’s top-tier platform, BVSN would be trading for $170.89 per share. In both of these calculations we included BVSN’s $56.79 million in cash and an additional $15 million for BVSN’s old products that are still being used by many companies and generating revenues.
A fair value for BVSN’s Clearvale at this time is probably somewhere in between the valuations currently being given to the social platforms of SABA and JIVE. Considering that BVSN has quadruple the cash of SABA and a much more experienced management team, BVSN has a much better chance of successfully competing with JIVE and leading the industry with JIVE.
BVSN has been quietly building Clearvale under the radar. JIVE has a market cap of $900.76 million and enterprise value of $699.77 million because Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley just brought JIVE public last month in one of the hottest IPOs of 2011. BVSN has already been public for 15 years and doesn’t need to raise any cash. This is extremely positive for BVSN shareholders because BVSN’s public float is widely held without any need for dilution, but it also explains why the new BVSN has been completely undiscovered up until now.
With BVSN making the biggest percentage gainers list several times in recent weeks, a countless number of investors are currently researching BVSN for the first time in over a decade. Most of these investors know that the Facebook IPO is coming in May and they recognize that the media will be talking about the Facebook IPO on a daily basis up until Facebook starts trading, with the media coverage likely to start picking up steam the closer we get to the IPO. It is only a matter of time before there is a huge article in a major Wall Street publication like Barron’s or the Wall Street Journal that talks about how the real growth ahead will be in the enterprise social networking industry. An article like this could potentially discuss how JIVE and BVSN are the only two publicly traded pure plays in this space.
Up until now at major corporations across America, most co-workers communicate with each other through email. Some employees also use some type of instant messenger service. Emails and IMs are quickly becoming old-fashioned. It is time for businesses and their employees to upgrade the way they communicate at work into the 21st century. Enterprise social networking is about to change the way employees get their work done.
We consider BVSN’s Clearvale to be the best platform for businesses because it improves not only how co-workers communicate with each other, but also how employees communicate with their partners and customers. Clearvale is the only solution in the industry that allows businesses to create separate social networks for their employees, partners, and customers, while managing them together as a whole in one social enterprise ecosystem. Clearvale also makes it easy for businesses to integrate their enterprise social networks with their public social profiles on Facebook and Twitter. Clearvale takes advantage of a company’s Facebook and Twitter traffic by directing customers on Facebook and Twitter to the company’s Clearvale enabled community. By moving the conversation to Clearvale, the business has more control over the conversation and can better assist their customers.
NIA will have an in-depth BVSN update on Sunday evening. This could be an absolutely huge week for BVSN with their year end results conference call scheduled for after the close on Thursday.
Disclaimer: NIA owns 188,700 shares of BVSN that it purchased at an average price of $11.77 per share. NIA agreed to a 60 day holding period on its initial position of 122,000 shares starting from the date that NIA first suggested the company, but NIA intends to sell these 122,000 shares at some point in the future after the date of February 12th, 2012. NIA intends to sell its additional 66,700 shares of BVSN in the future and can sell them at any time. NIA’s co-founders have also been referred business in the past from somebody who has filed as a large BVSN shareholder. NIA also reserves the right to accumulate additional shares of BVSN at any time. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. NIA is not an investment advisor. This email is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. Never make investment decisions based on anything NIA says. This email is meant for informational and educational purposes only and does not provide investment advice.