NIA Urgent BVSN Update
NIA’s latest stock suggestion BroadVision Inc. (BVSN) finished today up $0.74 to $33.99 but at one point this afternoon BVSN rallied as high as $44.75 per share! Yes, at one point today BVSN was up as much as 32% to $44.75 per share!
Many people have been wondering when BVSN would finally make a major dip. Well, BVSN made that dip today after hitting $44.75 per share. BVSN dipped from a high of $44.75 down to a low of $32.06, before finishing the day up $0.74 to $33.99. BVSN traded an incredible 3,237,254 shares today.
NIA still hasn’t sold a single BVSN share. BVSN is still a 100% perfect buy in all 13 short, medium, and long-term categories and the next resistance level is now $49.62: http://barchart.com/opinions/stocks/BVSN
In our opinion, when BVSN breaks $49.62 it is possible it will soar well above $50 with the Facebook IPO coming this May!
As you know, there is another company in this industry called Saba Software (SABA) that has developed an enterprise social networking platform. SABA’s social platform is a low-tier platform that we believe is inferior to BVSN’s top-tier platform. However, it is unbelievable the valuation SABA is now trading at because of the huge social networking boom ahead.
Check out the average monthly closing price for SABA for the 8 years prior to completing Saba Social:
2010: $5.33
2009: $3.24
2008: $3.07
2007: $5.71
2006: $5.71
2005: $4.44
2004: $3.89
2003: $3.87
SABA was in a narrow trading range of $3.07 to $5.77 for 8 years because they have been generating almost all of their revenues since inception from their e-learning software. Still today in 2012, SABA’s e-learning software generates nearly all of their revenues and SABA only had very tiny revenue growth of 4% last quarter.
However, SABA has soared in recent months to its current price of $9.84. SABA’s average monthly closing price from 2003 through 2010 was $4.41 and today SABA is $9.84. SABA has 29.78 million shares outstanding. That is an increase in market cap for SABA of $161.71 million and we believe it is entirely due to Saba Social!
If we value BVSN’s Clearvale at $161.71 million in addition to BVSN’s $56.79 million in cash and we value BVSN’s old products at $15 million, BVSN would deserve a market cap of $233.5 million and a price of $51.72 per share.
However, in our minds BVSN’s Clearvale is a top-tier solution in this industry just like Jive Software (JIVE)’s social networking platform for businesses. JIVE has a market cap right now of $879.49 million and if you subtract JIVE’s net cash position including the money they raised in their IPO, JIVE has an enterprise value for their social networking platform of $678.5 million. If Clearvale was worth $678.5 million in addition to BVSN’s $56.79 million in cash and we value BVSN’s old products at $15 million, BVSN would deserve a market cap of $750.29 million and a price of $166.18 per share.
Although we believe Clearvale is worth a lot more than Saba Social, we don’t believe it deserves to be valued as high as JIVE’s social platform at this time because JIVE has more customers and BVSN just started aggressively marketing Clearvale. Yes, BVSN does have a customer worth $30 billion, Softbank in Japan, a company that likes Clearvale so much that they are now reselling it to their own customers. Still, we believe BVSN will need more time to prove themselves to the investment community before Clearvale is worth what JIVE’s platform is worth.
If we valued BVSN’s Clearvale in between Saba Social’s estimated value of $161.71 million and JIVE’s estimated social platform value of $678.5 million, the median value of the two is $420.11 million. If Clearvale was worth $420.11 million in addition to BVSN’s $56.79 million in cash and we value BVSN’s old products at $15 million, BVSN would deserve a market cap of $491.9 million and a price of $108.95 per share.
NIA never makes any target prices. In no way is NIA making any kind of price predictions for BVSN. We are only speculating by estimating the values of two other similar platforms and telling you what BVSN could be worth if Clearvale was worth certain values. Do not make investment decisions based on anything we say.
NIA is still working on its report comparing BVSN’s Clearvale Express to both Yammer and Chatter and we will be releasing it later tonight!
Disclaimer: NIA owns 188,700 shares of BVSN that it purchased at an average price of $11.77 per share. NIA agreed to a 60 day holding period on its initial position of 122,000 shares starting from the date that NIA first suggested the company, but NIA intends to sell these 122,000 shares at some point in the future after the date of February 12th, 2012. NIA intends to sell its additional 66,700 shares of BVSN in the future and can sell them at any time. NIA’s co-founders have also been referred business in the past from somebody who has filed as a large BVSN shareholder. NIA also reserves the right to accumulate additional shares of BVSN at any time. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. NIA is not an investment advisor. This email is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. Never make investment decisions based on anything NIA says. This email is meant for informational and educational purposes only and does not provide investment advice.